Thursday, September 07, 2006

Rotation Juggling..

自 Hendrickson 加入後,Dodgers 在他的 12 次先發裡掉了 7 場比賽,這樣的結果對任何人而言都可以說是 "small sample size"、"randomness" 或甚至 "lies within 3 sigma",但 -0.7 的 VORP (至 9 月 7 日為止) 說明了 long-torso 的表現甚至不如一個 replacement level 的 SP!換句話說,在 Maddux 掉了第 1 場比賽後,06 年對 Brewers 的最後一個 series 的結果就幾乎可以預見;而 Dodgers 也 "不負眾望" 的以 1W2L 結束了 06 年在 Miller Park 的旅程。

個人並沒有花時間去 reivew 這 3 場對 Brewers 的 road games,只是看了一下 Box score,比較在意的是 Saitoh 在 9 月 7 日的後援。

原則上那是一個 2-1 的領先,是 the highest leverage situation,派上 CL 是沒有疑問的。只是 Lowe 在 8-inning 裡也不過用了 79 球,這可不是個會讓 Lowe 的油箱見底的數目。整場比賽裡 Lowe 看起來相當 effective (至少 play by play data 和 GO/AO 看起來是如此),考慮 Dodgers 下個 off-day 前還有一個對上 Mets 的 4-gamer series,那麼撇開讓 Saitoh 得到一些 regular work (Some work...),Little 似乎沒有把 Lowe 換下場的理由。

這很難讓我不聯想到 9 月 10 日那場比賽懸而未決的 SP。個人的猜想是 Little 可能會視 Dodgers 在那 4-game series 裡的狀況而決定是否要用 Lowe 對 Mets 的 last game -- 也就是中間僅休 3 天 -- 做突擊先發。

就官網的 消息 來看,最後的決定尚未做出,但 Little 曾表示他願意用上另一個 "unknown starter" 頂住 9 月 10 日的比賽,然後讓 Lowe 於 9 月 11 日的 offday 多休一天,進而在 Wrigley Field 打頭陣。

我利用 Little 原本的想法將剩餘比賽的 rotation 的可能性排了一下,以 "Current" 表示;"Juggled" 表示 "用 Lowe 做休 3 日突擊先發" 後 rotation 的演變。代碼 1 代表 Penny;2 代表 Maddux;3 代表 Lowe,4 與 5 則可能是 Kuo、Hendrickson、Sele、Stults 還有希望能歸隊的 Billingsley 所做出的組合。

DateOpp.CurrentJuggled
09/07~ 09/10NYN (Road)1-4-2-51-4-2-3
09/12~09/14CHN (Road)3-1-21-4-2
09/15~09/18SDN (Home)4-5-3-13-5-1-4
09/19~09/21PIT (Home)2-4-52-3-5
09/22~09/24ARI (Home)3-1-21-4-2
09/26~09/28COL (Road)4-3-13-1-4
09/29~10/01SFN (Road)2-5-42-5-3

接下來比較一下 current 和 juggled 後對於 5 個位子的 SPs 在剩餘比賽場次擔任先發的累積場數則是:

Starter12345
Current55454
Juggled55553

這就是說,如果 Dodgers 選擇調整 rotation、也就是多操一下 Lowe 的話,在 No.5 的位子可以立刻減少一場,benefit 不大,但不是不存在,尤其 Dodgers 的 No.5 "集團" 於 06 年的表現乏善可陳。

事實上 "3 rest days" 並不盡然會成為投手受傷的關鍵,重要的是 manager 或 pitching coach 必須嚴格控制球數,在 BP columnist Rany Jazayerli 的研究裡得出了一個 "投手疲勞原則" (Principle of Pitcher Fatigue):

Throwing is not dangerous to a pitcher's arm. Throwing while tired is dangerous to a pitcher's arm.

所以只要 Little 盯得緊一點,他很可以在 9 月 10 日再度 "ride on Lowe",也省得為 No.5 的 vacant tenure 少傷點腦筋。

我相信 Dodger Fan 都會覺得 Little 帶隊的風格就是 "隨性",這對於 ML Level 的球員並不是壞事。問題在於如果戰況已經吃緊,Little 願不願意做出 desperate move 以求勝?或者是他還是只想當個 "疼惜子弟兵" 的好好先生 (I bet Red Sox fans may not agree with that..)?這是未來幾天值得觀察的部份。

以下是至 9 月 7 日為止的 Dartboard Adjusted Prediction:

NL West
TEAMP_WinP_LoseWPCT
LAN86.5475.460.534
SDN85.4076.600.527
SFN81.1980.810.501
ARI76.1785.830.470
COL74.6987.310.461


NL Central
TEAMP_WinP_LoseWPCT
SLN85.7976.210.530
CIN79.7082.300.492
HOU79.5382.470.491
MIL74.6287.380.460
CHN66.1095.900.408
PIT65.3696.640.403


NL East
TEAMP_WinP_LoseWPCT
NYN99.9362.070.617
PHI81.8080.200.505
FLO81.5480.460.503
ATL77.4684.540.478
WAS71.7990.210.443

Dodgers just got back where they started....

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

只希望小教練對郭泓志也有像Hendrickson一樣的耐心,但似乎不大可能。打完今早這場,對郭泓志明天成績的預測不會太樂觀。一出狀況恐怕小教練就上來拿球了,不可能像今天讓Penny在場上撐了119球!

Morikawa said...

我用 Game Day 瞄了一下,當 Penny 投完 Bottom 5th 後用了 98 球 卻還讓他投 Bottom 6th,感覺上反而像一種 penalty。

我會找時間 review 看看 Reyes 是怎麼弄出一支場內 HR 的....Kemp 該不會又有什麼嚴重的 "young mistake" 了吧?Scouting report 明明對他的 range 和 arm strength / accuracy 都有好評的。

Anonymous said...

You know why kuo will pitch tonight?Because today is Taiwan night in Shea.

Ako said...

to Anonymous:


跟Taiwan Night沒有關係...


兩年前Dodgers的Taiwan Night剛好遇到Rockies (四連戰的第一戰). 當時陳金鋒還在道奇,曹錦輝還沒受傷的時候.


結果兩個人當天不要說對決了, 連上場都沒有. 而之後的三場比賽小曹連救援三場而陳金鋒還有先發一場. XD.....


我要說的是球隊絕對不會為了配合相關的活動而讓球員硬上場. 特別是客場球隊配合主場? 在一場輸了就有可能失去季後賽資格的比賽? Little跟大都會應該沒什麼曖昧....


不過有可能是大都會知道道奇會先發Kuo所以故意配合??

Anonymous said...

Taiwan night is decided before season begin, and I heard Kuo originally start on Saturday, maybe Little think if there's a lot of Taiwan people in there, he will pitch better.

By the way, is there any Taiwan night before in LA?

Anonymous said...

Sorry, didn't see the response very carefully, so LA has already had Taiwan night, but I think it's the first time I heard the Mets has it.

And for the morikawa, Kemp first missed the ball, then drop the ball again, they not even throw it back to the home plate.

madboy said...

我想我對Kemp的評價已經降為守備很爛的LF盲砲。

Morikawa said...

To Anonymous,

Thanks for your nice comments. I guess you may not live in Taiwan, guys like you and Mr. Ako (who lives in LA) seriously get me envy. I am so eager to take a trip to Dodger Stadium or some other great ballparks in USA, but time is the luxury I don't have, getting an USA visa is not a picnic, either.

I watched the game Kuo pitched at Sep 8 at Shea. I bet you might see the ball smoked by Drew in top 5th which was caught by the MVP candidate Beltran. It's kinda Deja Vu of the inside-park HR hit by Reyes last game.

The differneces are Drew's smoke was in the opposite direction of Reyes' and dropped a couple feet higher. Results were quite different eventually. You know that's the so-called "young mistake" made by Kemp. Although he stood way too far to the fence and had no idea how much 'room' he had to play with. He should have caught that ball if he played his A-defense (Or the A-defense is something Kemp just doesn't have?)

Anyway, Kemp's incapability disappointed me a lot.

By the way, everybody can leave a comment for this murmur blog by using "Anonymous". I ain't restrict guys who want to leave nice pieces for me have to be a subscriber of "blogger.com". It will be grateful if you pick up the "Other" identity and show your favorite id for us.

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To Madboy 兄,

記得在 Kemp 昇上來沒多久時你曾談到 "Little 不肯讓 Kemp 成為固定先發" 的事,我想這可能就是 Dodgers 錯誤決定的開始。對於一個在 minor 可以打出 .900 以上 OPS 的球員實在沒有留在 minor 的必要,Dodgers 總不該期待等到 Kemp 在 triple-A 打了 1.2x、1.3x 的 OPS 再讓他上來,如果有心培養,應該多給 Kemp 犯錯的機會,結果現在我們看到的那是那個沒什麼成長的 Kemp,這是我的想法。

Dodgers 在 CCF、Guzman...等人身上犯下的錯誤已經夠多了,其實 Kemp 的 "好" 就在於他 21 歲就已經達到了 CCF 24 歲的水準 (Guzman 也是),也因此他的希望當然也高於 CCF,問題就在於 Dodgers 願不願意忍受 Kemp 的不效率而已。但這個問題的答案通常是 "否定" 的,多少表示了大市場球隊裡 prospects 的悲哀。