tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13479345.post8906379423317106734..comments2023-08-17T02:17:22.363-07:00Comments on Morikawa Blue: Knowing the OnionsMorikawahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01589615774316545629noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13479345.post-23686245610868611242008-01-06T21:07:00.000-08:002008-01-06T21:07:00.000-08:00GoTribeYang,新年快樂!關於 K/9 和 K/TBF,個人的認知是 "如果不是為了要詳細比...GoTribeYang,<BR/><BR/>新年快樂!關於 K/9 和 K/TBF,個人的認知是 "如果不是為了要詳細比較投手間的 stuff,K/9 其實已經有其一定程度的可信"。<BR/><BR/>我先前曾用 league average 的每 9 局打者人數來修正投手的局數,也就是 Morikawa 版的 adj_K/9 (改天把它寫出來讓大家來 debate 好了),發現這其中的誤差大約介於正負 1 之間,換句話說,影響是每 9 局多出 (或少掉) 1K。<BR/><BR/>Recall FIP 的式子、並考慮一個投 200 局的投手,誤差的 swing 大約是 22K,translate 成 runs 大約是正負 0.22 runs。<BR/><BR/>所以這就等於是看分析的人 "希望他的背後理論要 solid 到什麼程度" 的問題了。Morikawahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01589615774316545629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13479345.post-21146151986435387762008-01-04T19:18:00.000-08:002008-01-04T19:18:00.000-08:00Hi ~ Morikawa:補祝一句 Happy New Year. :)也感激你多加了 key w...Hi ~ Morikawa:<BR/><BR/>補祝一句 Happy New Year. :)<BR/><BR/>也感激你多加了 key word search 的功能,這樣以後我想針對某個東西去找您先前的大作會更快一點。<BR/><BR/>另外我有個疑問,在評估投手的三振能力上,投手的 SO/TBF 是否可被斷然的認定是個比 K/9、adjusted K/9 好用且準確的單項成績?如果是的話,為何還是有較多列 player stats 的網站選擇用 K/9 當成所列 pitching stats 中的一項?<BR/><BR/>我自己是 SO/TBF 的 fan,故一直有此問題 .. XDgotribeyanghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05616211914087634882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13479345.post-523510288983342142008-01-02T03:00:00.000-08:002008-01-02T03:00:00.000-08:00Dora & 大胖兄,Seriously, you guys got me on this OPS ...Dora & 大胖兄,<BR/><BR/>Seriously, you guys got me on this OPS thing.<BR/><BR/>就我現階段的知識,OPS 本身並沒有什麼實質意義,而是單純做為一個比較性的存在,後來有人利用 correlation 分析而發現 OPS 與 RC (Runs Created) 的直線關係比單一三圍 (AVG、OBP、SLG) 都要好,因此就這麼被沿用下來了。<BR/><BR/>這裡頭有些統計理論,不太方便在 comment 裡寫得太長,我會抽時間寫一篇類似 draft 而非研究成果的東西來做為後續。<BR/><BR/>而我個人的直覺:OBP + IsoP 與 原本的 OPS 在 "做對於 RC 的 correlation 的分析" 上可能未必會比較好。Morikawahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01589615774316545629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13479345.post-91483037995109603722008-01-01T10:32:00.000-08:002008-01-01T10:32:00.000-08:00謝謝Morikawa兄解答。另外其實我也一直有個相同疑問,OBP + IsoP有沒可能會是個更好的新...謝謝Morikawa兄解答。<BR/>另外其實我也一直有個相同疑問,OBP + IsoP有沒可能會是個更好的新OPS數據…Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13479345.post-6896258465284833812007-12-31T00:27:00.000-08:002007-12-31T00:27:00.000-08:00morikawa,我看SI只因為一年會有一次體育選手泳裝照,and that used to be ...morikawa,<BR/><BR/>我看SI只因為一年會有一次體育選手泳裝照,and that used to be all I know about SI.<BR/>XD<BR/><BR/>I was recently wondering what several indicators of player performance failed to tell me.<BR/><BR/>Let's take OPS. Since OBP already taken "hits" into account, and SLG by math terms overshadows OBP, then couldn't << IsoP + OBP >> become a better OPS indicator?<BR/><BR/><B>Happy New Year of the Rat!</B> <I>World Series at Wrigley, 2008!</I><BR/>:-DBillyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07132352551389612924noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13479345.post-68046688185650358122007-12-30T18:56:00.000-08:002007-12-30T18:56:00.000-08:00大胖兄,我個人覺得對打者來說,PA 不列出來還勉強算有道理,畢竟若 AB、BB、HBP、SH 與 S...大胖兄,<BR/><BR/>我個人覺得對打者來說,PA 不列出來還勉強算有道理,畢竟若 AB、BB、HBP、SH 與 SF 都知道的話,PA 是唯一決定。<BR/><BR/>但投手的部份就真的沒辦法 -- 基於 GIDP、CS 與 touch out...etc "藏" 在投球局數裡的東西。不過,像 Baseball Reference 或 Fan Graphs 其實都有提供像 BFP 或 TBF 這樣的東西,而如果要查單一小聯盟投手的 TBF,<A HREF="http://firstinning.com/prospects/min/" REL="nofollow">First Inning</A> 是不錯的選擇。<BR/><BR/>而另一種估計投手 AB (在計算 "投手的" BABIP 時所使用的技巧):<BR/><BR/>Estimated AB = ( IP * 2.82 ) or ( IP * 3 - GIDP )<BR/><BR/>--------<BR/><BR/>Wilson,<BR/><BR/>I should have used English a bit more in my post so that to avoid the ambiguity of tense in Chinese perhaps. <BR/><BR/>Speaking of Uehara, what I tried to state is "Instead of Kuroda, Dodgers should have signed Uehara 3-year 35.3M had he become FA in 2007". I never think of signing Uehara in 08. Nevertheless, I take Uehara has an ample chance to become an elite RP in major.<BR/><BR/>As you know, 08 is the last year of Lowe and Penny's contract. Despite the SP-blow-out upcoming offseason, Dodgers will have their holes to fit.<BR/><BR/>By the way, Penny's 09 club option is way too cheap. For the sake business and sincerity issues, we not only have to pick it up but also ought to offer him a contract extension.Morikawahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01589615774316545629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13479345.post-34063917125548601252007-12-28T00:54:00.000-08:002007-12-28T00:54:00.000-08:00Well, the SI rankings are a generalized thing writ...Well, the SI rankings are a generalized thing written for the casual fan, so don't expect it to have too much academic vigor behind it.<BR/><BR/>It's written for the general readership of FI, not for ppl w/ specific interest in quantitative analysis.<BR/><BR/>As for Uehara, well, I would actually prefer that we DON'T try and sign him, for a couple reasons.<BR/>a) He has a history of being over-worked, I am concerned about that<BR/>b) Next year is going to be a blow out year for FA pitchers.... forget Uehara, lets lock-up someone like Bedard!!!<BR/><BR/>Cheers,<BR/><BR/>WilsonStarberryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14162252904054559948noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13479345.post-54308695649877052572007-12-27T22:26:00.000-08:002007-12-27T22:26:00.000-08:00我記得PP(Project Prospect)在評論prospects時用的就不是K/9 & BB/...我記得PP(Project Prospect)在評論prospects時用的就不是K/9 & BB/9而是K%(SO/PA) & BB%,理由和Morikawa兄說的是一樣的。只不過這年頭查PA要比查AB &IP竟然麻煩多了?(特別是pitchers & MiLer)<BR/><BR/>Happy New Year.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com